Shipping and sustainability liquefied natural gas as an alternative fuel : evidence from Portugal

O transporte marítimo é um elo vital do comércio mundial graças à sua capacidade, confiabilidade e relação custo-eficácia no transporte de grande quantidade de bens; nenhum outro modo de transporte consegue alcançar tais economias de escala. Mas este argumento subestima os custos reais. A frota marítima internacional, excluindo barcos de pesca e navios militares, produziu em 2012 cerca de 796 milhões de toneladas (Mt) de dióxido de carbono (CO2) e 816 Mt de dióxido de carbono equivalente (CO2e) de gases de efeito de estufa (GEE) combinando dióxido de carbono (CO2), metano (CH4) e óxido nitroso (N2O) correspondendo a cerca de 3,1% das emissões globais (IMO-International Maritime Organization, 2015; Rahman e Mashud, 2015) e é um dos setores de mais rápido crescimento em termos de emissões de GEE (Gilbert, Bows e Starkey, 2010; Bows-Larkin, 2014) previstas aumentar entre 102% a 193% em relação aos níveis de 2000 até 2050 (Bows-Larkin, 2014), crescendo a uma taxa mais elevada do que a taxa média de todos os outros sectores, com excepção da aviação. Como as emissões marítimas são produzidas, em grande parte, em mar aberto e por navios registados em países de bandeira de conveniência, foram excluídas dos compromissos nacionais no âmbito do Protocolo de Quioto de 1997, que cedeu o controlo à IMO o organismo da ONU responsável pelo sector1. De acordo com o Maritime Knowledge Centre da IMO, a frota mercante mundial de navios com pelo menos 100 gross tonnage (tonelagem bruta) era composta por 93.161 navios no final do ano de 2016. Espera-se que um número crescente de navios mercantes entre em operação nas próximas décadas, nomeadamente navios porta-contentores de grande capacidade, navios metaneiros e outros adstritos a actividades diversificadas como produção, armazenamento e descarga de gás natural e de petróleo (em inglês Floating Production Storage and Offloading - FPSOs). Os combustíveis marítimos tradicionais também produzem emissões de óxido de enxofre (SOx), óxidos de azoto (NOx) e micropartículas e o impacto sobre o ambiente dos poluentes primários e secundários resultantes da combustão do fuelóleo pesado (HFO) tem contribui para a acidificação, eutrofização e formação de ozono (O3) fotoquímico (Bengtsson, 2011). Um efeito particularmente pernicioso na saúde das populações expostas é a mortalidade prematura relacionada com micropartículas inaláveis associadas com o aumento do cancro de pulmão e problemas cardiorrespiratórios (Corbett et al., 2007) e, embora os efeitos nocivos mais graves sejam particularmente sentidos nas zonas costeiras e em áreas próximas das atividades portuárias, estes efeitos também ocorrem no interior dos países devido às condições predominantes dos ventos (Corbett, Fischbeck and Pandis, 1999) incluindo efeitos transfronteiriços (Nore, 2011). Em Portugal e de acordo com o World Resources Institute, as emissões de CO2 com origem nos combustíveis marítimos cresceram 24,5%, entre 2003 e 2012, em linha com o crescimento mundial (de 26,8%) no mesmo período de dez anos (World Resources Institute, 2015). Nesta tese, para efeitos de monetarização das emissões produzidas pela frota mercante nacional serão utilizados os dados do Inventário Nacional de Emissões, dados de 2014, os quais revelam que, embora o contributo do sector para o registo nacional seja mínimo – devido nomeadamente à exiguidade da frota – o potencial de danos causados não é de todo despiciente. Técnicas para aumentar a eficiência energética e tecnologias de mitigação dos efeitos nocivos - scrubbers, (depuradores) e dispositivos catalíticos - têm sido desenvolvidas e implementadas -, no entanto, embora o seu contributo para a descarbonização do sector deva ser levado em conta, estas tecnologias não correspondem à alteração pretendida do paradigma energético e podem constituir um incentivo ao business-as-usual. Por outro lado, o recurso a combustíveis com menor conteúdo de enxofre como o diesel marítimo é contraproducente uma vez que as emissões dos motores a diesel foram recentemente classificadas como cancerígenas pelo Centro Internacional de Investigação do Cancro (Oeder et al, 2015). O que isto significa é que embora o diesel corresponda ao exigido futuramente pelo Regulamento Tier III emitido pela IMO, na realidade não respeita suficientemente as preocupações com a saúde humana. De qualquer modo as refinarias não teriam provavelmente capacidade suficiente de fornecer todo o diesel necessário para abastecer a frota mundial. Por outro lado, as medidas de redução de poluentes emitidas pela IMO poderão ver seus efeitos reduzidos pelo crescimento esperado da atividade marítima nas próximas décadas e são destinadas a ser adoptadas lentamente ao longo de um largo período de tempo e mostram um progresso muito lento no contexto de evitar um aumento de temperatura superior a 2ºC acima dos níveis pré-industriais (Gilbert, 2013; Bows-Larkin, 2014), daí a necessidade urgente de investir em novas tecnologias e em novos tipos de combustíveis.The objective of this Ph.D. thesis is to provide important inputs for the decarbonisation of marine transport and climate change mitigation policies concerning liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a substitute fuel. Real-world results show efficiency gains from LNG compared with traditional fossil fuels burned on-board vessel’s engines even when equipped with mitigation technologies. Yet, this is a necessary but not a sufficient condition to LNG be elected as a substitute fuel. For a fuel switch of such order of magnitude to occur within a major end-use sector, other requirements are to be fulfilled: the government intervention in the public interest, and, to justify such policy intervention, the degree of social acceptability. This is accomplished by developing a social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA) performed at a regional basis after the assessment of the trade-off between the provision level of the good and Portuguese nationals’ disposable income had been examined. SCBA attaches money prices - a metric of everything that everyone can recognise - to as many costs and benefits as possible in order to uniformly weigh the policy objectives. As a result, these prices reflect the value a society ascribe to the paradigm change enabling the decision maker to form an opinion about the net social welfare effects. Empirically, emissions from the Portuguese merchant fleet weighted by their contribution for the National Inventory were used to quantify and monetise externalities compared with benefits from LNG as a substitute marine fuel. Benefits from the policy implementation are those related with the reduction of negative externalities. Costs are those determined from the price nationals are hypothetically willing-to-pay for. Conclusions show that benefits are largely superior to the costs, so action must be taken instead of a doing nothing scenario. Apart from the social ex-ante evaluation, this thesis also imprints the first step for developing furthermore complete studies in this aspect and it can help fill policy makers’ knowledge gap to what concerns to strategic energy options vis-à-vis sustainability stakeholders engagement. Although it addresses Portuguese particularities, this methodology should be applied elsewhere

A análise de Sines como ativo geoestratégico nacional: um cluster suportado nas redes marítimas mundiais

A competição atual em termos portuários não se resume apenas a uma competição entre os portos mas sim em termos de redes logísticas aos quais pertencem. Se o espaço geográfico da competição corresponde ao hinterland competitivo, a fase correspondente, a de regionalização portuária do hinterland, passa obrigatoriamente pela eficiência e fiabilidade dos fluxos de mercadorias transportados, o que obriga ao investimento nas ligações ferroviárias, o elemento terrestre, sem descurar o desenvolvimento do seu foreland, o elemento marítimo. Esta premissa orienta a análise de Sines ao longo deste trabalho, numa perspetiva sistémica assente na sua tripla valência como interface marítimo-terrestre, plataforma logística e zona de atração de atividade industrial que permita constituir-se em cluster regional. Apenas analisado nesta perspetiva holística se pode aspirar a descrever uma análise profunda, direcionada para o futuro, daquele que surge como um dos grandes ativos estratégicos para Portugal. O alargamento do Canal do Panamá é referido como uma grande oportunidade de crescimento para Sines, da economia regional e da economia nacional. Mas até que ponto isso será verdade e como é que Sines, derivado do seu posicionamento, se poderá tornar efetivamente num grande porto da fachada atlântica da Europa? Acima de tudo, e talvez mais importante, será preparar o caminho para fazer de Sines uma referência no mercado portuário mundial, um desafio que é também uma oportunidade e que o país não pode perder. O desempenho, medido em termos de eficiência e de eficácia, surge como fulcral para lograr tal objetivo, não apenas em termos microeconómicos, mas também porque o bom ou mau desempenho portuário influencia, em última instância, o bom ou mau desempenho de uma economia.The current competition in port activity is not just a competition between ports but in terms of logistics networks to which they belong. If the geographic scope of competition corresponds to its competitive hinterland, the corresponding phase, the port regionalization of the hinterland, will be dependent upon the efficiency and reliability of the flow of goods transported, which requires investment in rail links, the earthly element, without neglecting the development of its foreland, the maritime element. This premise directs the analysis of Sines, throughout this paper, in a systemic perspective based on its validity as a triple sea-land interface port, a logistics platform and an area of industrial activity enabling to form as a regional cluster. Only this holistic analysis can hope to describe an in-depth, forward-looking, of one that emerges as a major strategic asset for Portugal. The enlargement of the Panama Canal is referred to as a great growth opportunity for Sines, the regional and the national economy. But to what extent this is true and how Sines, derived from its position, could become a really great port of the Atlantic coast of Europe? But above all, and most importantly, will be to pave the way to make Sines as a reference port in the market world, a challenge that is also an opportunity and that the country cannot lose. The port performance, measured in terms of efficiency and effectiveness, emerges as central to achieve this goal, not only in microeconomic terms, but also because the good or bad port performance, ultimately, influence the good or bad performance of an economy

Liquefied Natural Gas as an alternative fuel: a regional-level social cost-benefit appraisal

The impact from traditional marine fuels has the potential of causing health and non-health damages and contributes to climate change. Here, the introduction of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as an energy end-use fuel for marine purposes is analysed. The aim of this study is to verify LNG’s policy implementation feasibility as a step-change for a low carbon perspective for shipping by means of developing a social cost-benefit analysis on a regional basis. Emissions from the Portuguese merchant fleet, weighted by their contribution to the National Inventory, were used to quantify and monetise climate, health and non-health externalities compared with benefits from LNG as a substitute fuel. Benefits from the policy implementation are those related to the reduction of external environmental, health and non-health impacts. Costs are those that nationals are willing to pay for. In this sense, to estimate the value of the atmospheric air - a non-market commodity - people were asked about the price they hypothetically are willing to pay by responding to a specific questionnaire. The present study, based on a social cost-benefit analysis, indicates that benefits are almost 8 times superior to the costs and is consistent with real world efficiency gains. Although it addresses Portuguese particularities, this methodology should be applied elsewhere.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Liquefied Natural Gas as an alternative fuel: a regional-level social cost-benefit appraisal

The impact from traditional marine fuels has the potential of causing health and non-health damages and contributes to climate change. Here, the introduction of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as an energy end-use fuel for marine purposes is analysed. The aim of this study is to verify LNG’s policy implementation feasibility as a step-change for a low carbon perspective for shipping by means of developing a social cost-benefit analysis on a regional basis. Emissions from the Portuguese merchant fleet, weighted by their contribution to the National Inventory, were used to quantify and monetise climate, health and non-health externalities compared with benefits from LNG as a substitute fuel. Benefits from the policy implementation are those related to the reduction of external environmental, health and non-health impacts. Costs are those that nationals are willing to pay for. In this sense, to estimate the value of the atmospheric air - a non-market commodity - people were asked about the price they hypothetically are willing to pay by responding to a specific questionnaire. The present study, based on a social cost-benefit analysis, indicates that benefits are almost 8 times superior to the costs and is consistent with real world efficiency gains. Although it addresses Portuguese particularities, this methodology should be applied elsewhere.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Timed artificial insemination in Serrana nanny-goats: the effects of vaginal specula and artificial insemination technicians

The success of artificial insemination (AI) depends on the equipment used, especially regarding the facilitation of artificial insemination technicians’ work and the positioning of insemination guns in the genital tract of animals. This study aimed to evaluate how vaginal specula and artificial insemination technicians affected the fertility rates of timed artificially inseminated Serrana Transmontano goats (which are indigenous to Portugal). For this, 58 adult nanny-goats aged between three and nine years were used. They were reproductively controlled by a short progestogen treatment (FGA) (seven days) with equine chorionic gonadotropin (eCG). Timed cervical AI (43 hours after the end of the hormonal treatment) was performed with chilled semen. Nanny-goats were inseminated by two artificial insemination technicians (A vs. B) alternating two vaginal specula (Minitub vs. “Reyes”). Pregnancy was diagnosed by ultrasound 41 days later. About 98% of nanny-goats responded to our treatment with FGA and eCG. In total, 82.8% of nanny-goats were pregnant 41 days after AI. Neither vaginal specula (Minitub: 81.2% vs. “Reyes”: 84.6%) nor artificial insemination technicians (A: 82.8% vs. B: 82.8%) affected fertility rates. Thus, we conclude that neither the vaginal specula used in this research nor the artificial insemination technicians affected Serrana goat pregnancy rates

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear un derstanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5–7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8–11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world’s most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepre sented in biodiversity databases.13–15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may elim inate pieces of the Amazon’s biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological com munities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple or ganism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region’s vulnerability to environmental change. 15%–18% of the most ne glected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lostinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Photography-based taxonomy is inadequate, unnecessary, and potentially harmful for biological sciences

The question whether taxonomic descriptions naming new animal species without type specimen(s) deposited in collections should be accepted for publication by scientific journals and allowed by the Code has already been discussed in Zootaxa (Dubois & Nemésio 2007; Donegan 2008, 2009; Nemésio 2009a–b; Dubois 2009; Gentile & Snell 2009; Minelli 2009; Cianferoni & Bartolozzi 2016; Amorim et al. 2016). This question was again raised in a letter supported by 35 signatories published in the journal Nature (Pape et al. 2016) on 15 September 2016. On 25 September 2016, the following rebuttal (strictly limited to 300 words as per the editorial rules of Nature) was submitted to Nature, which on 18 October 2016 refused to publish it. As we think this problem is a very important one for zoological taxonomy, this text is published here exactly as submitted to Nature, followed by the list of the 493 taxonomists and collection-based researchers who signed it in the short time span from 20 September to 6 October 2016